Wednesday, April 29, 2015

Pitcher Ratings

The primary performance ratings for pitchers are control, left and right splits, and the P1 through P5 pitch ratings.

Similar to how hitting ratings all work together, so do the pitching ratings, though it is not quite as "fuzzy".

Let's start with control.  That defines how many walks a pitcher will surrender.  Typically, I will prefer to look for pitchers with a control rating of 70 or higher, though you can get away with a lower control rating provided the pitcher is strong in the other primary ratings such as the L/R splits and the P1-P5 pitches.  But I typically won't go lower than 50 at a bare minimum, and I'll only go that low if I have exceptionally high splits (80 or better).

Next is splits.  The higher, the better.  One thing to keep in mind . . . around 60% of the hitters you will typically face over the course of a season will be right handed hitters.  This means that the vs R split should be valued a little higher than the vs L split.  Typically, I will try to avoid going lower than a weighted average of 60 for splits when looking at a pitcher for my Major League pitching staff.  By "weighted average", I mean (vsL * .4 + vsR * .6).  And the lower I get towards 60, I'd better have especially high ratings for control and/or the P1-P5 pitches.

Finally, there are the P1-P5 pitches.  These are sometimes to toughest to quantify as they are a bit fuzzy.  Starting pitchers (and long relievers) will typically have 3 or more pitches on his card (the pitches that he doesn't have will have ratings of 0, which isn't really a bad rating, it just means he doesn't have that pitch).  Short relievers will often only have 2 pitches (P1 and P2), but will sometimes have a P3.

For starting pitchers, I like to see a P1 >= 80, a P2 >= 70, and anything beyond that (P3, P4 and possibly P5) >= 50.  Most guys with 4 or 5 pitches will often have a P4 and/or P5 less than 50, possibly even less than 40.  You're not always going to be able to find 80-70-50-50-50 pitchers, so you just want to do the best you can and not get too hung up on being a few points off on any or all of those).

For relief pitchers, it's very similar.  P1 >= 80, P2 >= 75 or so.  Anything P3 and beyond, you just want to stay away from low numbers.

Some people value velocity and ground ball ratings, but more often than not, they should be seen as secondary ratings.  Ground ball ratings probably carry a little more weight than velocity, especially if you play in a hitter's park with positive home run ratings.  A high ground ball rating means fewer fly balls, which means less home runs allowed in a hitters park.  It also means that you probably want to have a good infield defense, otherwise more ground balls could translate into more opportunities for errors from your shortstop and second baseman.

One last comment about ratings for pitchers, and that's on the durability and stamina ratings.  Starting pitchers (and long relievers) will almost always have lower durability (< 35) and higher stamina (> 60) ratings.  Short relievers will be just the opposite: higher durability and lower stamina. 

Hitter Ratings

The five primary ratings for hitters are contact, power, left and right splits, and batting eye.  There is no one right combination of these five ratings as they all work together to define what kind of hitter the player will be.

A typical lineup is going to have a mix of different kinds of hitters.  You will have players who are good at getting on-base, hitters who make good contact and hit for good average, guys who hit for power, etc.

With that in mind, it's difficult to say what is a good rating to have in any one particular category, as you can have a very high rating in one category but poor ratings in the other four, and overall, your guy is just not going to be a productive offensive player.  Conversely, he can have a fairly poor rating in one category, but if he is exceptionally strong in two, three or all four of the other ratings, he may be an excellent contributor in some manner to your offense.

To get a much better understanding of what combination of ratings define certain kids of hitters, your best bet will often be to look at a previously completed season in your world, look for hitters who are near the league leaders in some category (on base percentage, batting average, slugging percentage, etc.), look at their ratings for the five primary categories, and try to understand the correlation between those ratings and the statistics they produce.